『杭电1628』Roman Roulette

Problem Description

The historian Flavius Josephus relates how, in the Romano-Jewish conflict of 67 A.D., the Romans took the town of Jotapata which he was commanding. Escaping, Jospehus found himself trapped in a cave with 40 companions. The Romans discovered his whereabouts and invited him to surrender, but his companions refused to allow him to do so. He therefore suggested that they kill each other, one by one, the order to be decided by lot. Tradition has it that the means for effecting the lot was to stand in a circle, and, beginning at some point, count round, every third person being killed in turn. The sole survivor of this process was Josephus, who then surrendered to the Romans. Which begs the question: had Josephus previously practised quietly with 41 stones in a dark corner, or had he calculated mathematically that he should adopt the 31st position in order to survive?

Having read an account of thi

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